Some thoughts... in no particular order

I was just talking to BP recently and we were both commenting on a particularly frustrating blog-related phenomenon: the half-finished post draft. You get all riled up thinking about some issue or another, you start formulating the perfect post, and then by the time you hit the keyboard you just don't have the juice, or you realize there's some snag in your theory you hadn't thought of before, or you want to start drinking early, or whatever... And so you hit the "save" button and figure you'll get back to it, and of course you never do. I've had a lot of decent ideas die this way; same, apparently, for BP. So I wanted to get a few thoughts out right here and right now - each would justify it's own post, but I'm thinking if I went down that road none of them would see the light of day. The good news is that I'm actually supposed to be writing something else at the moment, so of course it's the perfect time to be working on the blog. With no further ado, a few shallow thoughts...

1). If I'm Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his inner-circle of Republican Guard cronies, what am I really looking for? For these guys, reinvigorating the Revolution is everything. Sure, they'd love to get nukes eventually, but if you believe everybody but Israeli intelligence that's still pretty long term, and the ayatollahs probably won't let an unpredictable hothead like Ahmadinejad anywhere near the launch codes. These guys would like nothing better than to goad the US into bombing. It would rally the people around them, and they'd get to let loose with the toys they really dig: Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Iraq, international terrorism. They'd rather not have a nuclear stalemate; their preference would be asymmetrical warfare. A US strike would loosen all restraints on getting that started. So I'm thinking that Ahmadinejad and the people close to him in Iran are pushing hard on the nuclear program precisely because they want a conflict, not risking a conflict to build nuclear weapons. Dick Cheney, of course, would be more than happy to comply, at least right after he gets back from hunting.

2). I think it says a lot about the modern day Republican party that there's more collective sanity in a room full of Batman villains than there is among Giuliani's foreign policy advisors, and yet he's leading the field. And to think that the GOP used to be the party that people trusted to run a responsible and competent foreign policy... This is a weapon if Hillary Clinton knows how to use it.

3). I like Chris Dodd a lot. He got a bit of Jed Bartlett to him...

4). And, oh what the hell, I like Fred Thompson too. I've always had a weakness for actors turned politicians, though (see, e.g., the Gubernator).

5). I think Mitt Romney is a very dangerous general election candidate, much more so than Rudy. Americans haven't elected somebody with a personality as obviously nasty as Rudy's since Nixon, whereas Romney has this (disgustingly) wholesome thing going, will say anything to get elected, and can break to the center pretty easily. He's pretty moderate, and will appeal to a lot of independent voters queasy about Hillary.

6). Barack Obama is a very smart guy, so I'm sure he understands this: There are a lot of us out there who have strong reservations about his general election potential because we do not believe he is tough enough. Hillary has completely taken advantage of his holier-than-thou crap, and the Republican attack machine looks like it would pretty much have his way with him. Say what you will about Hillary, but she would rather die than lose to a clown like Giuliani or a phony like Romney. Democratic voters are thinking about Giuliani vs. Obama, and worrying on the latter's behalf, like some mom who's afraid to let her kid go out and face a bully, and that is not a good situation for Obama as he tries to make the case that Hillary is unelectable.